NASA has raised the probability of a “city-killer” asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, or a 1 in 32 chance, due to a recent increase in calculations. This asteroid, 2024 YR4, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. The news has caused a stir, as a dramatic 3D simulation depicting the asteroid’s potential impact has gone viral, showing the catastrophic devastation it could bring to a major city.
NASA’s Updated Risk Assessment for 2024 YR4 Asteroid Impact
According to NASA’s latest data, the asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated diameter of 177 feet (54 meters)—roughly the size of a building. While it is not large enough to threaten human civilization, it could potentially wipe out an entire city if it were to strike. The recent simulation, created by 3D animator Alvaro Gracia Montoya, visualizes the impact’s destructive force as a massive space rock slams into a metropolis.
The updated risk calculation of 3.1% represents a slight increase from the 2.6% chance announced just the week before. Experts, however, are not alarmed by the change. Bruce Betts, the chief scientist for the Planetary Society, emphasized that the chances are still relatively low, saying, “I’m not panicking.” He went on to explain that as more data is gathered, the probability will likely fluctuate before eventually dropping to zero.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Path and the Likelihood of Impact
NASA’s asteroid experts have stated that while the chances of an impact are rising, there is still a 96.9% chance the asteroid will miss Earth entirely. Furthermore, researchers predict that as more data on the asteroid’s trajectory becomes available, the risk of an impact will likely decrease back to zero. There is also a small chance—0.3%—that the asteroid could collide with the moon instead of Earth.
The asteroid has gained attention not only for its potential to cause destruction but also because it marks a growing concern over near-Earth objects (NEOs). With growing monitoring efforts from space agencies around the world, the asteroid was flagged by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) when its impact probability exceeded 1% in January 2025. This early warning system, in collaboration with various planetary defense organizations, is designed to track and assess the risks posed by space rocks like YR4.
What Happens If Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hits Earth?
If the asteroid were to strike Earth, its estimated size could unleash catastrophic destruction in the affected area. While the space rock is not large enough to endanger all of humanity, it would be capable of leveling a large city, creating widespread devastation. This type of asteroid impact is often referred to as a “city-killer,” a term used for objects that could cause massive destruction without wiping out civilization entirely.
Looking Ahead: Monitoring and Risk Assessment
As the chances of a potential impact increase, the global community of astronomers and planetary defense experts continues to closely monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4. Despite the slight increase in probability, experts emphasize that there is no immediate cause for concern. The continued study of the asteroid’s path will help refine NASA’s data, allowing for more accurate risk assessments in the months ahead.
NASA’s calculations for the asteroid’s possible collision with Earth are based on the most recent trajectory data. At this point, the projected impact date is December 22, 2032, but with more data, that date could change as well. For now, the situation remains under control, and there is no reason to panic.
Conclusion
While the idea of a “NASA asteroid hitting Earth” in 2032 seems alarming at first glance, the chances of such an event occurring are still relatively low. With a 3.1% chance of impact, the asteroid 2024 YR4 represents an ongoing but manageable threat. Experts continue to closely track the asteroid, and as new data comes in, the likelihood of a collision is expected to decrease. For now, there’s no need to worry about an impending disaster.
